This is the time of
monsters»
Antonio Gramsci
I would like to present you with a very substantive, common-sense analysis of the current geopolitical situation, which correlates directly with the ideas and proposals made in the book "How to Get rid of the shackles of totalitarianism. The challenge of overcoming political innocence" https://www.amazon.com/HOW-GET-RID-SHACKLES-TOTALITARIANISM-ebook/
As well as demonstrating the impartiality of the author's vision of the world, give confidence in the relevance of the problems raised here and the vital need to solve them in today's situation. Also gives the sense that I'm not alone in my life position and beliefs though.
Grigory Yavlinsky, leader of the
“Jabloko” party, from positions of humanism (however, the specifics of Russia's
position must not be forgotten either!) not only defines and specifies the
causes of the crisis in modern civilisation, but formulates and offers real
solutions to overcome the crisis. Their constructive evaluation and thoughtful
implementation in life can now become a guarantor of the survival of modern
civilisation and a prerequisite for human progress established in humanism.
The question
remains open: do the able-bodied people, and above all the political leaders of
the democracies, perceive, and yet will be able to take adequate action to
prevent the sinister apocalypse of the world order?!!
(The original Article can
be read at https://www.yavlinsky.ru/article/titanic/
https://www.facebook.com/reel/571874555599855
The accents made in the
Article are mine.
FECI, QUOD POTUI, FACIANT MELIORA POTENTES
POLITICAL
GAP
On the Dangers and Challenges of the Approaching Era
Grigory Yavlinsky
23.12.2024.
And
it's the most dangerous and challenging historical moment to find a path to a positive outlook. At the
end of 2024, for the first time in many
decades, we realistically ended up on the
brink of a large- scale military clash using, if not nuclear weapons
(even though it is entirely possible),
then by its destructiveness - comparable to them. Escalation progresses and
takes effect almost daily. These are no abstract threats, no bluff, no
blackmail. In fact, the risks are very high in the assessment of
professional experts (1).
There
are virtually no effective deterrent international structures, institutions,
instruments left in global policy. After decades of operation by the United
Nations (UN), the UN Security Council,
the OSCE is losing its former role. The issue of setting up new institutions or reforming existing ones at a
high political level is not even seriously discussed, there is a lack of
understanding of fastmoving objective processes. The world is in a geopolitical
vacuum, with no working international political institutions, no deterrence
agreements, no effective diplomacy. And it comes at a time when civilization is
under threat from deadly dangerous weapons and the military conflict with the
direct and indirect involvement of nuclear powers is in a hot phase.
We
didn't end up in one moment in that situation. The processes that led to this
began around 35 years ago, demonstrating
themselves in shocking events. These were shocks for Russia, which had a huge impact on people's
consciousness and perceptions: The collapse of the Soviet Union, which
erupted after failed economic and
political reforms of the 1990 s, a
bloody war in Chechnya.
Changes
in Russia, the severe economic situation and the deep political crisis led to a temporary weakening
of Moscow's positions on the
world stage, which undeniably influenced
American political mentality - the US became the leader of the single
polar world for a while. Unitary, as was thought at the time, not only because
of one country's apparent economic and military superiority over all others,
but also because of its dominance in choosing landmarks on the way to a freer,
fairer, more democratic and safer world for all of us. But how did the world's
elite take advantage of open opportunities?
After
the end of the cold War and the abandonment of the arms race, huge sums freed
up in the Western economy that needed to be channelled towards the development
of socalled third world nations - education, healthcare, business development.
But instead, the billions saved were invested in financial pyramids. The result
didn't take long to wait: the rapidly growing divide between the rich west and
poor third world countries became one of the main preconditions for the
terrorist attacks in the US on 11 September 2001. The follow-up was the failed
American military campaigns in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya and Sirijs. The United
States has not achieved what it wants in these operations and has thrown these
regions into chaos. Moreover, in the 1990 s, the funds invested in
financial pyramids dissolved in history
during the biggest economic crisis of 2007-2008. The consequences of this
crisis have been catastrophic and are
still being felt in many parts of the world.
All
these major upheavals of the past three and a half decades have become one of the factors
behind global change. The peculiarity of
the situation, however, is that in those same
years, in the absence of positive qualitative changes in the global situation, significant
qualitative shifts of a different
nature began to develop - completely unexpected and with virtually unpredictable consequences.
Populism
has always been, to a greater or lesser extent, part of political life. However, modern
populism is special in world politics.
Its qualitative difference from previous marginal forms is that modern
populism has become an almost
absolute political dominance, expressing and enforcing ochlocracy, which in turn forms and
strengthens in the mentally informative space through digital technologies, the
internet, social networks. Such political populism accepts qualitatively different shapes and scales than before.
As
you know, ochlocracy (literally mob domination) is the decline of
democracy, to the point of indulgence the immediate desires of the masses. It's
the emotions and passions that prevail
over the mind, it's a general lack of understanding of reality and an inability
to adequately assess the threat. In today's circumstances it
is this trend that prevails, and in practice is realised through political populism.
Let's call it ochlopopulism.
Since
social networks turned from popular internet activity into a global social
phenomenon in the late 2000 s, the internet crowd has taken on a dominant
role in politics. Human values,
national interests, understanding of the global and regional perspective all stopped being a
determining factor in
political decisionmaking. Politicians-ohlopopulists are now
guided by sentiments on social networks, indulging in an absurd and often
selfish logic of internet communities. Moreover, the influence and role of once authoritative
world class traditional media continues to fall. While outward ochlopopulists tend to conform to the
sentiments and preferences built on social networks, in reality they often
pursue the interests of narrow, closed and principled anti-democratic groups.
And thus there is an esential crash of
democracy, with its external visibility and form still remaining for now.
Today's digital technologies give populists virtually limitless opportunities.
The world is sinking into chaos.
It's
not hard to notice that the world's leading politicians, especially in western countries, are
discussing anything in the context of
the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and arguing their observations with anything, but only not from the position of preserving
human life the main value in that discourse is far from number one.
The
consequences of flushing human values away from politics and the growing divide with
reality are obvious: in the end, populists
are unable to live up to their unrealistic promises to voters, and in an effort to justify their
failures are beginning to engage in a search for enemies - internal or
external. So domestic politics
puts basic stone to authoritarianism, totalitarianism to fascism.
And in foreign policy, as we well
know, looking for enemies is the way to war.
The
crucial instrumental practical role in the ambitious political implementation of the ochlocracy,
namely meeting mob aspirations and
domineering ambitions in a populist way
leading to illegality and violence and domination, belongs to the
internet and social networks. The basis for the flow of information is now based on
emotions and opinions that
dominate the internet, not actual events. The current filing and hierarchy of reports no longer works: a
blogger diletent rating with a million
subscribers proves more influential than a scientist-expert analysis and
arguments. Prejudice is seen as the norm these days. Reports of facts
without prejudicial interpretation of
them are generally irrelevant. This leads to a parallel flow of
information that is only formally linked to reality. “This opens up huge
opportunities to manipulate the information agenda and through it politics to
purposefully achieve an ambitious
redistribution of economic but also, in
perspective, political power,”
I wrote about it in my article, “The ochlocracy of information” (2), as early
as 2020.
These
tendencies are particularly vivid in American politics. On socnetworking's role in
the US presidential election in 2016, 2020 and 2024, it says and writes a jot:
manipulating public opinion through
social networks blamed both Democrats and Republicans. But there are other
examples. Thus, in December
2024, Romania's Constitutional Court annulled the results of the country's presidential
election because one of the candidates
used “aggressive propaganda during the pre-election campaign, over exploiting
the algorithms of social networking platforms” and thus disinfecting Romanian voters (3). The
court argued that the candidate manipulated voter votes through digital
technology and artificial intelligence.
The growing danger these days is that the ochlocracy, through new information and digital
technologies, leads to the power of
populists and selfish manipulators, who
will eventually turn the absolute majority of citizens into some kind of modern slaves.
And it's far from an exaggeration, nor a
fantastic scenario of a distant future.
The
information chaos opens up broad perspectives for manipulating people's consciousness and
opinion: modern technology, by its
capabilities and
consequences, has long outperformed
classic censorship of
print editions and proved far more
effective than the usual propaganda-based “brainwashing.”
And really, you don't need to flush your
brain anymor human consciousness now forms through socnets.
For
a long time, there was the illusion that the internet was an alternative to
traditional television, that access to vast amounts of information resources
without obvious restrictions of
censorship would contribute to the development of independence of thought. Only
now comes the recognition that this vision
is misguided. Perhaps in an attempt to reverse dangerous trends, most recently the
Australian Parliament took the decision
to ban access to social networks for children and adolescents under 16 (4). However, a
direct ban is unlikely to be effective, plus, the open question is what to do
with misleading those over 16?!
Remarkably,
in early December 2024, the Oxford
University publishing house named brain ROT- as the name of the year in the English speaking world. The
publishing house says the word has become particularly popular on social
networks in the past year and is firmly
used in the lexicon of bloggers (5).
Such
a combination of words probably best describes what's happening in the heads of not
just socnet rank and file users, but internet-crowd-focused politicians -
populists.
The
tendency to push high quality news media out of the information field has been
intensifying in the world for several years. Replacing news with mass user generated
informational messages is no longer an independent phenomenon: media audiences
and socnetworks deliberately extort news content from their platforms (in
Canada, for example, Facebook and Instagram are absolutely officially blocking
links to posts).
Research
into trends in the information space today shows that, at a time when audiences
are increasingly tired of political news and making choices in favor of
entertainment content, the flow of information continues to grow rapidly and is
virtually no longer structured and formatted. The Economist's recent assessment
confirms that there will be a dominance of opinion over facts in the
information stream over the next four years. Moreover, the more extreme the
direction these views will take, the better they will spread. Neither existing
media platforms nor current political leaders (6) will likely be able to cope
with this flow anymore. Already today,
we can watch ochlopopulism
become one of the causes of political crises in Germany, France, South
Korea. The dangers of ochlopopulism are reminded to us of the dramatic
consequences of four year old Brexit in Britain.
In
the future, we are expected to see even more complex and unpredictable phenomena associated with
the introduction of artificial
intelligence - AI (7) into public political reality. But even that's not all yet! For now, a
hypothetical but already developed
artificial superintelligence (ASI) era is coming - a system with intellectual capabilities
that transcends human ones and is
able to generate ideas that go far beyond anything humans can do or even imagine. A
particular issue today, therefore,
is how to overcome the chaos of intrusive internet networks, how to preserve
democratic politics, how to cut
it off from ochlocracy and populism, i.e. from hysterical form and
inherently inadequate mob demands. This
should become a key challenge in building a new global facility. This
task should not be postponed for longer. Because it may miss a moment when you can still
realistically change the deadlocked, destructive course and save civilization
from chaos.
And
the chaos is already there. The global turmoil of the late-21 st century,
combined with modern digital technologies, has led to the globalisation of
political entropy and disorder. The
world has entered an era of ochlocracy and aggressive
political populism, lost sight of the
future in the shape of the concept of
human development.
The
situation in the world is increasingly reminiscent of the eve of the 1914
disaster, when politicians and large state elites, without wanting war in
principle, moved ever closer to it and came to a global military conflict with
the participation of 38 countries in which the deaths occurred, by various estimates, 15 to 22 million people
(8). It should be noted that even
then, at the beginning of the 19 th century, humanity underwent a strong
technological revolution: a phone, a telegraph, planes, internal combustion
engines, cars, principled new types of armaments (chemical weapons) appeared.
All of this overshadowed the
real danger and threat that was one of the
decisive factors for the launch of the absurd world war (as a result, including the coup d' état in
Russia in 1917). Today, too, as 110 years ago, new inventions and modern
technologies, ahead of human
consciousness, energize negative emotions in
humans and once again lead humanity to the development of very dangerous events.
A
post war European installation based on human rights and the priority of human
life has actually become obsolete and is no
longer the basis and central point of modern politics. The
Russia-Ukraine conflict overshadowed the apparent socio-political crisis in the
European Union. This irresistibly leads to serious economic and social problems
and therefore contributes to the strengthening of radical forces both right wing
and left-wing in many European countries.
REPRESENTATIVE
OF THE ERA - DONALD TRUMP
Donald
Trump won a convincing victory in the US presidential election. Thanks to the
peculiarities of his character, the specific manners of his behavior and the
experience of an aggressive American businessman, Tramp, better than no
other, realizes populism in politics at the highest level in its contemporary
appearance, expressing the will of the crowd, the ohlusa, or, as they sometimes say, the “ordinary people.”
Because
what does Tramp's promise? Faster satisfaction of the interests of the least
deprived sections of the population: tax
cuts, significant deregulation (a reduction in public oversight in the private business), a trade tariff raising
customs duties on importers (including
importers from the EU) to 10-20% (almost 60% for Chinese goods), mass
deportation of illegal migrants, abandoning the climate change agenda. All
focusing instead on energy and mining (using hydraulic fracturing technology to
intensify extraction). What steps
specifically Tramp will take to deliver on all those promises is unclear
for now. Just as there are no answers to
questions to do about such a policy with
a dramatic increase in public debt and a critically increasing budget deficit.
But agiotage is already very noticeable
in markets and the press.
On
Tramp foreign policy guided by both what the President elect himself and his
close circle have said over the past four
years and what was published on the political media, it can be said that
American foreign policy will be based on a simple principle: The US will only guard its
national interests and only look after security threats in North America.
Washington no longer needs to be
responsible for maintaining the order of the
broad world, nor does it need to engage in a fight with countries that
do not directly threaten the United States itself (regardless of the dangers and threats these countries
bring to their regions).
Under
Tramp's foreign policy doctrine, the US is determined to maintain unparalleled
military strength, but only to defend itself. Americans are no longer going to
the risks of a military clash with Russia, either because of Ukraine or the
Baltic States. Nor does the US need a confrontation with China because of
Taiwan. Why should the Pentagon protect against the Hussites in the Red Sea
China's trade with Europe?! For whom does Washington have any alliances with
Europeans or Asians?! Let Eurasians deal with Eurasia! Trampe is counting on
the geographic isolation of the United States, his nuclear arsenal, his ability
to control parts of the North Pacific and Atlantic to keep potential
aggressors away. The Tramp's concept
also seeks to diminish the importance of international law and the role of
already virtually non working international organizations such as the UN, the
UN Security Council, the WTO, etc. It will be an attempt to weaken the
restrictions the legal and institutional ones that the “liberal order of the
world” imposes on American power. Tramp believes that this will reduce
Washington's confrontation with Beijing,
with Moscow and even with Tehran, because then violations of these international
norms can be ignored. Likewise, one can no longer worry about the fate of
democracy in some small countries
thousands of kilometres beyond America's
borders.
However,
in the event of a strong political interest Tramp may also make exceptions in
his foreign policy. Already during his first term as President, the US
facilitated the conclusion of the
Abraham Treaty, a Treaty to normalise Israel's relations with the UAE,
Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan. Similarly, during Trampe's tenure through the US,
Serbia and Kosovo agreed to normalize
economic relations, while Egypt, along with Persijs Gulf States, settled
the conflict with Qatar. In addition, in February 2020, the United States
struck a peace deal with the Taliban that essentially allowed the deaths
of Americans in hostilities in
Afghanistan to be prevented in the last year of the Tramp's administration's rule.
Still,
the peacekeeper's mission is far from central to Tramp. Of course, if there are
any peace initiatives for councillors, then
why not realise them. But here, when it comes to trade issues and
economic interests, then any friction and conflict is: for example, when China
threatens Taiwan's semiconductor industry - the world's largest chip maker, on
which the U.S. economy also depends. Or if US citizens fall victim to Iranian
attacks in these cases, Tramp also ready to act
thousands of kilometres off the US coast.
But
in general America First, i.e.“America is above everything” is the
defining direction in Donald Trump's politics. And it must be understood that
this will have disruptive consequences for global stability in the future. World
history, especially until 1945, leaves virtually no hope that the current
global political crisis will peacefully settle itself. Moreover, compared
to its competitors, the United States is far less powerful now than it was in
1945 or even 1991.
The
modern world machine can collapse at a shocking rate. The US's abandonment of
protecting the global economy will only reinforce mercantilism and
protectionism. All that was seen as the norm in recent decades - free trade,
unhindered passage of continents and oceans, the inadmissibility of conquering
other countries - it will all turn out to be a thing of the past. The
peculiarity and tragedy of Tramp's isolationist conception - which is
essentially the product of a political ochlocracy that has emerged in the US -
is that such policies only yield the desired fruit in the short term. In time,
Americans will be forced to regret their choice of “America is above everything.”
Yes, chaos and anarchy will come first to other countries, but sooner or later
global catastrophic change will also come down to the US. Still, analysts
around Tramp are responding to it roughly as one of the characters in Mikhail
Sholochov's novel “Silent Don” put it - “die You Tonight, I Tomorrow!”
That
Tramp's first term is not a coincidence, a departure from the usual norm, but
the formation of a new norm the same ochlopopulism - was understandable,
if not in 2016, then already in 2020 certainly. And after Joe Biden's coming to
power had to seek a solution to the problem. However, the new worrying trends
in US politics were never so identified, and Trampe's defeat in last election
turned into his triumphal victory on November 5, 2024.
I
wrote about these dangerous phenomena in the November 2020 publication
“Trampe's victory”: «… the Internet and new digital technologies, along with
the deformity of political competition, have led to the fact that the quality
and professionalism of politicians as statesmen is no longer decisive. Policy
requires organization, implementation and enforcement control. In fact, it also
needs managers - competent, energetic, orderly and adequately motivated.
But today we're seeing a very different picture... the real point of this
election is not that Tramp has lost, but Democrats have won. The point is that
a weak and untalented politician has suffered defeat while his party has
significantly strengthened its positions in every other branch of power. And
it's the perfect situation for an able bodied far right nationalist - a
populist who will run for President in 2024..." (9). And two months later,
in January 2021, in an article “Put Your
House in Order,” I pointed out that Tramp has succeeded in making the point:
'He has shifted the frames and prepared the next coming to power of the
autocrat and populist in the US... and in this situation it is important not to
go wrong. In the near term, populism will arm itself with respect strategies to
look solemn, not marginal, and thus be a prospective political direction. This
populism would turn away from those of its followers who are vulgar putting
their feet on the table of the Speaker of the US House of representatives of
Congress. We will witness how populism, along with the collapse of
institutions, will become an alternative “modern development trend...” (10)
Tramp's
victory in the 2016 election and his presence in power during the first term
has, by its very nature, allowed many moral and professional restrictions in
politics to be removed, not just for supporters of the Republican leader but
for his opponents. Populist manipulative techniques are firmly entrenched in
big politics, the substantive agenda of the day has gone to the fore, giving
space for external forms and effective statements. A stark example is the
much repeated and endlessly debated Republican candidate's pledge during the
pre election campaign to end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours. And Tramp
return to the White House is just one aspect of the victory of ochlopopulism
(imperious political populism) as the dominant vector in world politics.
To
repeat, it's not simply about some unique personality, it's about modern
information technology creating the conditions for a sustained presence in
power by far right populists, nationalists, iselessists prone to authoritarian
methods of leadership and manipulation of mass consciousness. It is a
prolonged multi-factor crisis in the global political system (see page
“Political Entropy” (11) and “The New World Mess” (12).
The distinctive feature of this crisis is the overall shift in
politics towards populism and the principled abandonment of the human centric
content of politics. It's important to note that Trump has
already gone far beyond the boundaries of Republican supporters in the US. A
month before the election, the Economist published an article titled “Trampling
American Politics” (13). The newspaper pointed out that the Democratic and
Republican candidate's pre election programs differ little with each other, and
that Tramp “transformed American politics by his image and likeness.”
But indeed, before the election, Tramp vowed to bomb Mexico and deport
illegals, called opposition politicians “internal enemies” and claimed migrants
were “poisoning blood” of the nation. And despite all this - or perhaps even
thanks to it, Tramp won nearly 50% of the electoral vote. So it comes out
that all these slogans and appeals are no longer just a marginal position, but
actually the views of half the US population in the 21 st century.
Perhaps
particularly influential in U.S. domestic and foreign policy will now be a
group of business billionaires technocrats from silicon Valley. First, it's
about figures like the all known Ilona Musk and the lesser known Peter Thiel,
cofounder of PayPal and Palantir (A U.S. data analysis software developer
company whose main principals are military structures and special services -
such as the Pentagon and the CIA, investment banks and hedge funds). And if
Musk's role in Trampe's victory is quite direct - the SpaceX founder has spent
$277 million on the Republican last campaign (14), then Thiel's participation
wasn't as trivial: U.S. Vice President elect Jei di Vance found himself in that
position thanks largely to Thiel's advancement. And it's with Vance, rather
than simply with Tramp, that they associate their long term plans with
technocrats billionaires who have cracked down on big politics. Their main
future bet is artificial intelligence (AI), but their whole ideology, for the
most part, is that human value and social problems no longer matter much. That
the country, as a democratic institute in contemporary realities, is
low-performing and merely stifles technical progress by trying to regulate AI
and hindering the development of the cryptocurrency industry. According to
technocrats - billionaires, the state should be managed as a business company.
They believe digital technologies combined with authoritarian administration
will solve all problems (15).
Judging
by Tramp's nominated personalities after his election, his government will
be made up entirely of people obedient
to him and dependent on himones
who will only say yes on all issues and in all cases. According to
authoritative Western media, “Tramp's return proclaims a new golden age of
money in US politics and diplomacy” and
that, apparently, “he is about to start with the billionaire cabinet.” (16)
The
result of this election is not just Tramp personal merit, not just an
individual phenomenon. Tramp return is another important testament to the end
of the post war world machine era and the result of the rise of a global
disorder and political entropy. Trend,
symbolized by Tramp, is gaining victory in many countries around the world.
Therefore, this phenomenon should not be narrowed down to “trampism.” Tramp is
neither the creator nor ideologue of this political direction, he has only been
adept at “saddling the wave” and has become the brightest and most
powerful representative of ochlocratic populism in world politics.
Incidentally, even if he had lost in the
last election, the trend would surely continue
to grow in both the US and the world.
OCHLOPOPULISM
- A CELEBRATION ON “TITANIC”
A
stark demonstration of the inability of world politicians to understand and
confront today's challenges is the now increasingly obvious tragic
political and diplomatic impasse in which all parties involved, one way or
another, in the Russia-Ukraine conflict have found themselves.
The political diplomatic
impasse is different from the military. The military deadlock reflects the objective position of
opposing forces given their potential capabilities. While the political
diplomatic impasse is the
consequence of reducing the level of professionalism in global
politics and diplomacy, abandoning
fundamental values and guiding principles.
Modern
politicians work in the context of overarching populism and therefore often
find themselves at a dead end: they are unable to understand and correctly
assess the perspective.
Extremely sad, but no wonder they were never able to see a window of opportunity to stop the
bloodshed that opened between
autumn 2022 and winter 2023. Now known politologist Ivan Krastev out in his
recent publication the Financial Times: “the special operation failed in
September 2022. What we have been seeing since then is a proxy war against NATO
taking place on Ukrainian
soil." (17) Right. Just what price has been paid for these past two years and what
else lies ahead?!
Somehow nobody talks about it at all.
I've
been talking about the threat of a direct Russian clash with NATO on Ukrainian
soil as early as summer 2021 (see “It will
be a war not with Ukraine but with the entire Western world” (18). But that was not what Russia or the
West wanted to hear then. It wasn't
until late 2021 that some in Europe and America began to realize just how real
the threat of a military conflict was,
but in Russia's so-called opposition environment, it was also unable to
understand anything until the start of the special military operation.
In
November 2022, my letter on the need for a ceasefire agreement and a window of
opportunity opened to it was passed through the Vatican Embassy in Moscow to
Pope Francis of Rome. But neither
could his voice be heard. On the other hand, in early February 2023, “Novaya
Gazeta” was published as a call to stop the fire (19). Even then, however,
virtually no one understood everyone expected a fictional “battlefield win.”
And the moment was missed. For more than a thousand days now, the world's
leading politicians have been deliberately abandoning any business like
diplomatic attempt to stop the deaths of people and the destruction of an
entire country. This is one of the key mistakes
throughout Western diplomacy and very much in the Bayden administration
as well.
To
repeat, the state of such things in global politics is defined not so much by
the personal qualities of individual decision makers as by piecemeal and
gradual, but perhaps irreversible, decay of the country and even the most
important spheres of activity of society as a whole. And that's then the
consequence of losing the value guide and replacing it thanks to socnets, with
cynical post-modernist populism.
At
the same time, it is also one of the main reasons for a consistent deepening of the Middle
East crisis. Israel continues the war
because neither the international bodies (UN), the US, the European Union, nor the powerful Arab
States, either individually or
together, can only put into practice, but can't even offer any clear long term plan
for ensuring security in theory. There is a deep and growing gap between
declarations and even decisions taken at UN level and the possibility of
implementing them in today's circumstances.
Such
a global machine is a world of political entropy and chaos, namely the collapse
and disorganization of global social and political processes. For example, for
Russia, with its vast
territory and shrinking population, such a world is particularly dangerous. And it has to resist. But
overcoming political entropy will require principled new solutions. While as
time goes on, there is less and less
reason to expect American and European
political systems to cope successfully with a crisis of increasing
magnitude. It is very likely that at current political trends, the example of the Western model of prosperity
will no longer be workable in countries
such as Russia. Political processes in the West, as well as Western politicians
themselves, are increasingly distancing themselves from the role models of
democratic and liberal values,
generally from mainstream human values.
Understanding
these threats, coupled with the real concern for the future, suggests that you
will have to count first and
foremost on your own forces, not only within your own country but also
in international relations. The main crisis of our era is not so much in geopolitical confrontation as
in seamless, but in an ever increasing
loss of human values and meaning in global politics, coupled with a lack of
understanding of the problem. That's the essence of what's going on!
Neither economic success nor strengthening military capabilities outweigh the
deficit of these ideas. During this time, the area of political primary responsibility is to
move towards key meaningful meanings,
values and goals such as saving people's lives, ensuring their freedom, dignity and realizing
opportunities for growth.
It
is important to emphasise and historical experience
shows that in politics, if we miss the moment, the real opportunities to change things are lost for a very long
time, and in some cases forever. And
humanity has to pay dearly for it.
The
post-1945 global facility is in deep crisis. It looks like the departure of this previous model is already
irreversible. The peculiarity of modern global change is that current
politicians in charge of decision-making do not have an adequate understanding
of what is happening, nor any promising view of the outlook. This determines
the occurrence and further expansion of chaos.
Increasingly,
the observed penchant for adapting to current conditions can be compared to the
desire of “Titanic” passengers to find a more comfortable cabin on board,
indelibly approaching a
catastrophic collision with the iceberg. So, for example, the prevailing thrill of Tramp's
shocking return to the White House,
ignoring the meaning of this cambec context, is like a triumph on “Titanic.” Because
overall, what's happening, including
Trampe's victory, is a process that threatens an ambitious but perhaps towering
defeat for all the ship's
passengers, no matter what class of cabins they have.
There
should be no hope of finding a comfortable and safe place in the current
circumstances. It is necessary to do something different – to start
designing, constructing and harmonising high quality new international security
systems as quickly as possible, and at the same time to build new national
institutions in principle. Both must be built
on fundamental values of humanism, which can be called European, Christian
or mainstream human.
I
am convinced that the most important thing for the future is the identification, understanding and acceptance by
all the system of universal human values as a common central guide for the
development of a multipolar world, as well as a firm commitment to
institutionalize these values.
That
is to say, the establishment of a programme for the practical implementation of values,
including the entire system of international and national public bodies and
institutes.
Fundamentally
and very importantly, all of this is realistically
protected (which is a big but not yet solved task) from the distorting
effects of the latest digital technologies and rapidly developing artificial
intelligence.
In
other words, there must be a readiness to implement
reforms that will ensure that new
technologies, the country itself, with its institutes and, in general, the
entire world facility, serve the human being, not the other way around.
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